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No game in sports inspires more betting than the Super Bowl on an annual basis, and this year’s showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals will be no exception. Sure neither team was a favorite to make it this far (each one was the No. 4 seed in its respective conference), but we have a major market involved (Los Angeles) and another franchise that has generally been a perennial underdog (Cincinnati). Moreover, there is one quarterback who is finally playing in the Super Bowl for the first time in the latter stages of a long career (Matthew Stafford) and another who is a rising star looking to make some history of his own at just 25 years old (Joe Burrow).
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Rams versus Bengals is most definitely an intriguing matchup. Bets have already been coming in fast and furiously, and that will continue to be the case up until kickoff – and even after kickoff when it comes to the live market. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made right now.
Under 48.5 (-110)
You can’t feel great about Cincinnati’s offense in this particular matchup. After all, the Bengals surrendered a ridiculous nine sacks in the divisional round – and that was against Tennessee. Now they have to face a Los Angeles pass rush that features Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd. The fact that the Rams also have cornerback Jalen Ramsey roaming the secondary and likely forcing Burrow to hold onto the ball longer than he would like only adds to their favorable defensive prospects. Both teams are dealing with potentially significant injuries to their top tight ends: Tyler Higbee of the Rams and C.J. Uzomah of the Bengals. L.A.’s offense already did not look great in the second half against Tampa Bay and throughout the NFC Championship win over San Francisco, so if head coach Sean McVay’s team is going to get the job done it may have to do so with defense.
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Joe Burrow Over 11.5 rushing yards (-114)
Beyond the specifics of this particular matchup, quarterback rushing props almost always have more value in the biggest games. In the playoffs – and certainly in the Super Bowl – they aren’t sliding well before it becomes necessary or meandering out of bounds with the nearest defender five yards away like they might in a regular-season contest. As for Super Bowl LVI itself, you have to like Burrow’s chances of exceeding a modest 11.5 rushing yards quota. As mentioned above, he will probably be under pressure early and often by the Rams. With Ramsey also putting the clamps down on his receiving targets, Burrow will surely be forced to make some plays with his legs on Sunday. The former LSU standout just rushed for 25 yards in the AFC Championship, so for all of those reasons the over has plenty of value at this 11.5 number.
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No touchback on the opening kickoff (-118)
Although we are not getting the same value as we had on this no-touchback opening kickoff bet in previous Super Bowls (+230 last year, for example), it is still a play worth making. Look no further than recent history to understand why. Seven of the last eight Super Bowls have begun with the receiving team returning the kick as opposed to watching it sail through the end zone (or catching it and downing it in the end zone). Part of the reason is because the opening game ball for every Super Bowl – unlike balls in other games – is not allowed to be used by either team in warmups. Thus it is heavier because it is not broken in, and therefore more difficult to kick far. The Rams and Bengals finished the regular season with respective touchback percentages of 63.3 and 59.7; nothing special compared to the rest of the league. Moreover, Los Angeles kicker Matt Gay may be dealing with a slight injury so if the Rams kick off that could add even more value to this prop bet. All in all, even at shorter odds than in Super Bowl LV this is a play to strongly consider.
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