Welcome to Mac’s Mailbag, your go-to series for expert 2024 Super Bowl 58 betting advice. As a sports betting journalist with years of industry experience, I answer your most pressing betting questions, using data-driven NFL predictions and the latest industry news to help you gain an edge.
What’s going on with Kansas City’s odds?
Hey Mac,
After the AFC Championship, I heard Patrick Mahomes say the Chiefs have been underdogs the last few games. I don’t know how to check old sports betting odds, but I’m having a hard time believing that. It feels like Kansas City’s in the Super Bowl every year. How could they ever be underdogs?!
Has a favorite been announced yet for Super Bowl LVIII? If the Chiefs are underdogs again, it’ll start to feel like the oddsmakers aren’t watching the same games as me.
-Dale, Illinois
Mac’s reply
Hey Dale,
You’re spot on about the Chiefs, and your curiosity about their underdog status is justified. Kansas City has been an underdog much more often than you’d expect, particularly given their recent NFL playoffs track record.
In the AFC Championship, Mahomes and the Chiefs were a surprising +194 underdog against Baltimore. In the Divisional Round Game against Buffalo, the Chiefs were a +128 underdog. In last year’s Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs were underdogs against Philadelphia. This means the Chiefs entered three of their last four playoff games as underdogs. Yet Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid have defied the odds and triumphed every time.
Are the Chiefs or 49ers the favorite in Super Bowl LVIII?
Regarding Super Bowl 2024, it’s looking like the same story. The current moneyline odds favor the San Francisco 49ers at -120, implying a 54.5% chance of winning. However, the analysts at Dimers.com recently simulated the 49ers-Chiefs matchup 10,000 times, and the Chiefs came out as losers in 6,000 of them, suggesting only a 40% chance of a Kansas City victory. This discrepancy between oddsmakers’ perceptions and analytical data makes the 49ers not just favorites but also a valuable bet.
As a Niners fan who has witnessed the unpredictability of such high-stake games, I appreciate Kansas City’s resilience. Remembering the Chiefs’ stunning comeback against the Niners in Super Bowl LIV is still fresh for a Bay Area native like me. But this time, the data tilts towards San Francisco.
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What should you do about it?
With that in mind, my advice is to lean into the data and bet on the 49ers’ moneyline. The numbers suggest they are not only the favorites but also a value bet. If you’re eligible, you should also snatch up FanDuel and BetMGM’s new-user promos, which offer $200 and $158 in bonus bets, respectively, and get you the best possible value. These deals are also valid for non-NFL games, like this week’s hotly anticipated Kentucky-Florida college basketball game.